A little over a month ago things were business as usual within the world of healthcare real estate. The Revista Medical Real Estate Investment Forum had just wrapped up with healthy growth in attendance and many attendees were speaking of another year ahead of continued growth in transaction volumes.
With the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic this will be an important metric to track in 2020 and beyond. Take comfort in the fact that over previous cycles/downturns the rate held up remarkably well, especially when compared to other asset classes.
Classic economic theories establish a clear relationship between supply and demand for many goods and services. In real estate circles the theory says that as prices rise, demand (or occupancy) should fall.
As 2019 was winding down, a large MOB portfolio sale closed with just five days left in the year. That sale, perhaps, could be a key toward propelling 2019’s total MOB sales volume to once again top $10 billion for the fifth straight year.
Last year 77 medical office projects started that will be over 100,000 square feet when completed. That's quite an uptick over previous years when we averaged less than 50.
The MOB Scene
December 17, 2019 Mike Hargrave
Single Property MOB Cap Rates Creeping Up
Overall, MOB cap rates have continued to remain at lower levels compared to just a few years ago. According to Revista’s 3rd Quarter, 2019 Medical Real Estate Transactions Report, the US MOB average cap rate 6.4% which was down slightly from 6.5% in 3Q18.
If you have seen Revista’s metro trends you may have noticed the Baltimore MOB market is one of the tightest in the country. The MOB occupancy rate has averaged between 93.9% and 94.8% since the 2nd quarter of 2018.
On the consumer side, health care costs represent almost 18% of GNP in the U.S. which is far higher than other industrialized nations around the world. The reasons are legion but will not be the focus of this article. To add insult to injury, overall health care outcomes in the U.S. are trending in the wrong direction in comparison to the rest of the world or, at best, just staying somewhat even.